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User blog:JanleyManley/Will we see a late season devastating typhoon this year?
As we all know, the 2017 WPac season has been the year of the South China Sea, as 15 named storms have formed in that region alone. However, we ahve lacked of any strong typhoon taking a direct path into the Philippines, as a couple of these happen a year. 2017 has seen 0, and it is almost 2018. Most of the storms this year have been very weak, boring, and repititive. The only cool storm we had this year was Typhoon Noru, which became the second-longest lasting typhoon on record in the WPac basin. Our retirement candidate this year occurred in the SCS, Hato, which became the worst typhoon on record in Macau. All other storms, however, have been tame and boring. Although we had Typhoons Doksuri and Damrey, we might consider them retirement candidates if they had hit the Philippines, however, Vietnam has never retired a storm name. But this introduction is off-topic, so let's get to the point. Will we see a C4+ typhoon impact the Philippines by the end of the season? Current conditions Although conditions are very conducive for a powerful late-season system, we have not seen a single system try to take this path. They all end up curving towards Japan. One example of this is Lan, which was originally forecasted to slam into the Manila region, which would have unfortunately caused massive destruction. Every system this year has traced back to a system emerging off of the west coast of the Philippines or the open ocean south of Japan. The warm waters in the South China Sea will probably be much cooler now that 14-15 named storms have used that unusually warm water in that region. Is it possible that these warm conditions could move to the Philippines by January? Could the Filipino region be affected next by this unusual amount of storms forming? Statistics at this time in past years A table is shown below of how many C4+ typhoons have made landfall in the Philippines by November 22. When adjusted to December 31: This overall shows that the average amount of typhoons hitting the Philippines at C4+ intensity is about 1.8 typhoons per year. With the exception of 2008 and 2009, that average is 2.3, showing that typhoons above C3 intensity are common in the Philippines, but 2008, 2009, and 2017 has not yet seen a single typhoon. Most of these types of typhoons occur in November and December. We have yet to see a strong typhoon impact the Philippines. What will the storm be named? Most likely, this system that could impact the Philippines by Christmas will be named Kai-tak, the next name on the list. There is a less chance that it will be named Tembin, and a very low chance of it being named Bolaven. The November 21 18Z run showed a C3 typhoon slamming into the Philippines on December 5. In this case, it will be named Kai-tak, because no systems are in the forecast before this system. What will 2018 be like? We are expected to enter La Nina conditions throughout 2018, so it is likely that this upcoming season will be not as active as 2013-2016. 2017 has been the quietest season since 2010 in terms of super typhoons, as we have only seen Noru and Lan become such a system. I do not expect any more than 24 named storms next year for the WPac. I predict about 8-10 typhoons and 2-3 super typhoons for 2018, as it could be very similar to the 2017 season. As for South China Sea storms, we had a lack of those for the past few seasons, and so all of those came in the 2017 season. This likely means that we will not see very many storms form in this region due to upwelled waters. With the following storms that formed in the SCS: Merbok, Talas, Sonca, Haitang, Hato, Pakhar, Mawar, Guchol, Doksuri, Khanun, Damrey, Haikui, and Kirogi (which might be the most named storms ever in the South China Sea), it is very unlikely that a strong storm will get through the South China Sea without going through rapid weakening. However, waters near the Philippines and Taiwan will be very active in the next year, due to it being practically untouched during the 2017 season. What do you think will happen in the last month of the 2017 season? Also, what do you think will happen in the 2018 season? Comment below! :) Category:Blog posts